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Sunday, November 17, 2013

Jokowi: Between a Traditional Elite and an Oligarchy


 Discussing a national political landscape over the last two years is so much fascinating in terms of looking at the much-discussed political competition. Heading to the 2014 election, everyone in Indonesia is keeping their eyes on Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s performance and his opportunity to run for president.
  
Jokowi, as various opinion polls have shown, holds the keys to victory. It would be foolish for the party to leave him behind in the 2014 race.  Apparently, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) sees Jokowi as the only tactic to uphold votes in both legislative and executive elections.

However, as a political student and for some Indonesians, the aforementioned scenario raises concerns regarding the internal dynamic between populism derived from Jokowi’s direct popular appeal and the prevailing patronage system within PDIP. It is largely obvious that during the Party’s coordination meeting couple months ago, there were two camps: those who supported Megawati to run for the third times as the PDIP’s presidential candidate and those local PDIP cadres who favor the former Solo mayor as the prominent candidate.

Given the aforementioned description, there are two possible questions. First, what is the political consequence if the PDIP is willing to back Jokowi’s bid to run for office and second, how can Jokowi exert and maintain his popularity amid the domination of small wealthy people or oligarchs on the national political landscape.

PDIP is a traditional party that has been maintaining its appeal among its followers by looking back to Soekarno and his nationalist vision. However, it is virtually assured that this party is only controlled by Soekarno descendants. Since it was established in 1999, PDIP has been in the hands of Megawati and her family members. Every single policy has been overseen by Megawati and she has been viewed as the symbol of unity within the party. Jokowi knows exactly what his party requires to back presidential candidates and he knows he has to maintain close relations with Megawati. This fact is pivotal in analyzing the way the party or to lesser extent its charwoman shapes what is Indonesia’s future under Jokowi if he latter becomes president next year.

That scenario will likely happen given certain basic facts. It is collectively known recently, Megawati is accompanying Jokowi on visits to see what is happening at the grassroots level.  This fact is unique given her profile as an elite; Megawati has never done such activities except during political campaigns. Megawati is trying to emulate what Jokowi has been doing so far. Jokowi also spends time frequently to visit Megawati’s house to discuss many topics ranging from international to local issues (Tempo: 2013).  Jokowi even reported the progress of certain projects such as, Pluit Dam and relocation of Tanah Abang textile market, to the former Indonesian president.

Looking ahead, it is hard to judge what sort of president Jokowi would make. However, these aforementioned facts lead to prospect of Jokowi if he is elected constitutionally as the Indonesian president. Megawati will tend to influence Jokowi’s policy, particularly in crucial polices, such as appointing cabinet ministers and high state institutional officers. This is more likely to occur given the close relationship between those two prominent figures. Jokowi himself so far has exhibited how Megawati is highly important in his tenure as Jakarta’s governor as well as the PDIP’s cadre.

Beside the close relationship between Jokowi and his chairwoman, another crucial issue that should be highlighted is that Jokowi’s popularity and its effect amid the existence of oligarchy.

As we know, the key power resource that brings Jokowi to the national level is his popularity. He does not have the same tremendous material power as his counterparts, such as Prabowo Subianto, Aburizal Bakrie, Surya Paloh and Jusuf Kalla. On the one hand, the popularity is crucial for Jokowi to mobilize support from the middle and lower class of society as was proved in the Jakarta election in 2012. Jokowi emerged when the current government fails to address the needs of a large constituency. It created conditions ripe for populism. In other words, it was a movement, a reaction to a deficient political system. The people felt neglected in some way by their government; the populist leader appealed to this, suggesting he could better represent their political desires.

On the other hand, this popularity is apparently not quite strong enough to tame the oligarchic which have continued to influence and even “hijack” Indonesia’s democracy after the downfall of Soeharto (Hadiz & Robinson; Winters: 2012). Jokowi is popular due mainly to heavy media coverage since he was the Solo mayor. He will be vulnerable amid the domination of oligarchs in Indonesia, needing to acknowledge the financial backing and other support would be given to him during his presidential campaign.

If the PDIP allows Jokowi to run for the 2014 election, a financial support is the crucial factor to think about. The 2012 gubernatorial election was the best example how the Jokowi’s candidacy received a financial backing from the oligarchs.  In its report, weekly based magazine Tempo published a revealing article focusing on the oligarchs backing Jokowi’s candidacy (Who Owns Jokowi?” Tempo, July24 2012). Though, Jokowi’s campaign team refused that report, it is widely known that Indonesia’s democracy is highly cost democracy. Oligarchs will provide a vast amount of money to Jokowi and in turn, he has to give reward to those small wealthy people who support his political campaign.  This leads to concern, the extent to which Jokowi will distance himself from the existence of oligarchy.
  
Jokowi has to cut the circle of elites and oligarchs even though it will take long time. Democracy does not merely require electability and popularity but the competency to become an independent figure amid the prevailing elitists and oligarchy domination within the democratic system

By: Hipolitus Yolisandry Ringgi Wangge
        published in the Jakarta Post, November 18, 2013